The Orangeville real estate market started the year with a bang, but is the momentum here to stay? I will say that January is often a difficult month to get a read on because there are generally low volumes. Let’s take a look at the numbers and see what’s going on here.
January 2025 Stats
Starting with new listings the trend from most of 2024 of higher listings than the 10-year average continued into January with 65 new listings an increase of 35.42% over January last year and well above the 10-year average of 46. Nothing new here I expect listing activity to continue to be higher as we progress through 2025.
The number of sales in January was also higher than typical with 36 sales a 28.57% increase over the 28 sales in 2024 and higher than the 10-year average for the month (29 sales).
The Average Sales Price ballooned in January to $909,772 an increase of 18.95% from the 764,821 average in January 2024 and a 19.95% increase over the average one month earlier in December.
This is a perfect example of why the average sales price isn’t always the best tool when measuring a small real estate market like Orangeville. With only 36 sales in the month, it is difficult for the average to hold a lot of meaning. In January some higher value homes sold there were also no lower value apartment style condos that sold.
Looking at the median price the increase is much smaller and looking at the benchmark price the increase is pretty much nonexistent. Expect the average sales price to come back to earth in February.
At the end of January, there were 86 active listings, a 68.63% increase from January 2024 but similar to the year-end number.
With 36 sales and 86 active listings at the end of the month, there is 2.4 months of inventory at the end of January. With 36 sales and 65 new listings, the sales-to-new listings Ratio is 55.38%. These metrics would indicate Orangeville is between a sellers and a neutral market right now, in reality, the market is behaving much more like a buyers market.
What does all this mean?
January is always a tricky month for market stats, generally, there is a low volume of sales so it is difficult for the numbers to have a lot of significance. If you believe the numbers you would think that the Orangeville market has started the year strong and that the Spring will be extremely busy for real estate. In my opinion, the numbers in January aren’t telling a true story of the Orangeville real estate market.
Increased sales activity is partially a function of lower interest rates but also due to the weaker than normal December sales, it’s more likely that some buyers that didn’t or couldn’t get a deal done in December moved early in January. Looking at the Toronto Regional Real Estate Board (TRREB) MLS numbers the sales for the GTA market were down slightly over 2024.
The big jump in average sales price is also an anomaly. The pricing for homes in Orangeville has not fundamentally changed over the last 18 months and this big jump in the average is not an indication of any changes coming. Again looking at the TRREB data for the whole market there is no meaningful change in the average sales price.
Toward the end of January, we saw a lot of uncertainty about the economy come to the forefront, with US tariffs and a potential trade war, the resignation of Justin Trudeau, and the Ford government calling an election in Ontario. In my experience, uncertainty leads to inaction and I do expect that the current climate of economic uncertainty will cause many would-be home buyers and sellers to pause before taking action.
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